The cost of an open position
Waiting reads as prudence and behaves as loss. Here is the arithmetic.
$ eldr --explain cost-of-carry
An open decision is not neutral. It is a position, and positions cost something to hold.
The cost is rarely money. It is attention: the same question re-opened at 02:00, the same three arguments rehearsed with nobody in the room. Count how many times this week you have re-run a decision you have not made. That number is the carry.
What it actually spends
- Attention. Every re-run is paid for out of the same budget as the work.
- Option value. Most options decay. The offer expires, the role is filled, the other party moves on. Waiting is a bet that the option does not decay faster than your information improves.
- Identity. After enough months, "I am deciding" becomes "I am the kind of person who does not decide". That one compounds.
The instrument
ELDR does not tell you what will happen. Nothing does. It takes fourteen inputs and returns one position, one confidence number, one window, and the case against itself. The point is not that the position is right. The point is that the loop closes and you find out.
A wrong decision that closes in fourteen days teaches you more than a correct decision you never made.
For entertainment and reflective purposes only. Does not predict future events.