The offer that expired
Worked example, not a customer: MOVE at 6/10, window 9d. He waited. The offer closed on day 11.
$ eldr --debrief 0K4M
POSITION MOVE
CONFIDENCE 6/10
WINDOW 9d
OUTCOME waited
LOGGED day 14
SOURCE constructed file
This is a constructed worked example, not a customer. Nobody has run a read here yet: the product has not launched and the decision log is empty. The situation and the numbers are written to show how the instrument reads a file of this shape.
The decision
An offer at a smaller company, twelve percent less cash, materially more scope. He had been at the current role four years and had described it as "fine" in three separate answers.
The read
MOVE at 6/10. Not a strong read — the pay cut was real and the scope claim was unverified. The window was nine days because the offer had a stated deadline and offers with stated deadlines do not usually extend.
The counter-case, verbatim
Scope promised in an interview is not scope. You have no second data point on this company and no way to get one inside nine days. If the current role is genuinely fine, a 12% cut buys you a story, not a position.
What happened
He asked for an extension on day 8. It was granted to day 11, then withdrawn. He outcome is logged as waited, at 2 out of 5.
What the log says
Nothing here proves MOVE was correct. The counter-case may well have been right about the scope. What the log records is that the decision was never actually made — the deadline made it. That is the failure mode this instrument exists to surface.