Confidence 7/10 is not a 70% chance

$ eldr --explain confidence

Every read carries a number out of ten, and the most common misreading of it is that 7/10 means a 70% chance of a good outcome. It does not mean that, it cannot mean that, and if it did the whole product would be a forecasting tool, which is the one thing it has promised never to be.

Here is what the number measures: how much of the position survives the counter-case. That is it. It is an internal consistency score on your own fourteen answers, not a probability attached to the world.

What moves the number

Agreement between your stated lean and your revealed behavior. A man who says he is 70% toward leaving and has taken zero externally visible steps in nine months produces a lower confidence number than a man who says he is 55% toward leaving and has already had two conversations. Stated conviction plus avoidance is the loudest contradiction in the input set, and it suppresses confidence hard.
Whether the decision is one decision. If the sentence you gave contains an "and", confidence drops, because the position is being computed over two things that can resolve in opposite directions. This is the single most common cause of a low number.
Whether the window is executable. A position you cannot act on inside the window is advice, not an instrument. If your stated move speed is slower than the deadline allows, confidence falls to reflect that the read is describing something you cannot do.
Whether the counter-case found a load-bearing assumption. When the strongest argument against the position names a fact you do not have and cannot get in time, the number comes down. That is the system marking its own homework.

$ eldr --explain confidence

What moves the number

Agreement between your stated lean and your revealed behavior. A man who says he is 70% toward leaving and has taken zero externally visible steps in nine months produces a lower confidence number than a man who says he is 55% toward leaving and has already had two conversations. Stated conviction plus avoidance is the loudest contradiction in the input set, and it suppresses confidence hard.
Whether the decision is one decision. If the sentence you gave contains an "and", confidence drops, because the position is being computed over two things that can resolve in opposite directions. This is the single most common cause of a low number.
Whether the window is executable. A position you cannot act on inside the window is advice, not an instrument. If your stated move speed is slower than the deadline allows, confidence falls to reflect that the read is describing something you cannot do.
Whether the counter-case found a load-bearing assumption. When the strongest argument against the position names a fact you do not have and cannot get in time, the number comes down. That is the system marking its own homework.

What moves the number

What moves the number

This one is behind the door.